Heatwaves in a net zero World

Abstract

While historical and future increases in heatwave frequency, duration and intensity are well documented, no studies have yet examined heatwave changes after anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions reach net zero. We address this by examining heatwave projections from millennial-scale simulations run with the Australian Earth System Model, ACCESS-ESM1-5. Each simulation branches off the SSP5-8.5 scenario at 5 year intervals between 2030–2060, from which point anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions are set to net zero. Heatwaves are systematically hotter, longer and more frequent the longer net zero is delayed and reach their highest values when net zero is delayed until 2060. Moreover, most re..